How In-Stat China Forecast 2009?
1. TD-SCDMA’s take-off depends on the development of Data Cards
The TD-SCDMA network will continue to expand to more tier-3 cities in 2009. Total cities covered by TD-SCDMA network by the end of 2009 will amount to more than 100. However, compared to the network construction, the increase of TD-SCDMA subscribers will largely depend on China Mobile’s
purchasing amount, GSM/TD-SCDMA dual-mode handsets maturity, and the time of MNP (Mobile
Number Portability) from 2G to 3G within China Mobile. Meanwhile, TD-HSDPA will be the key of TDSCDMA’s
success, making TD-HSDPA/EDGE/GPRS dual-mode data card a very promising business
for mass promotion. The total TD-SCDMA subscribers are expected to exceed 7 million by the end of
2009, over 1 million of which will be TD-HSDPA/EDGE/GPRS dual-mode data card subscribers.
2. CDMA will accumulate more than 70 million subscribers with more than 90% voice network
coverage nationwide
China Telecom has operated officially CDMA network since October 2008, and it is claimed that the
new operator will win 100 million subscribers in next 3 years. Several months ago, there are about 40
million subscribers on CDMA network; however the number has declined by 20-30% up to now due to
the high churn rate. China Telecom will firstly improve the CDMA 2000 voice coverage; which will, In-
Stat predicts, be more than 90% of the main China area by the end of 2009. In addition, CDMA 2000 EVDO, data oriented network will be only deployed in big cities; and the total subscribers of CDMA will surpass 70 millions by the end of 2009.